Four parties in Latvia are competing for the votes of Russian-speaking voters amid the collapse of Harmony
They used to work together in one form or another. After the collapse of Saskaņa, four forces are fighting for the vote of the Russian-speaking voter in these elections: both the faded old party and former associates who are continuing their political careers elsewhere.
In the pre-election video, this battle looks motley.
“Harmony Center” is proud of Nils Ušakovs’ time in Riga leadership, while distancing itself from the once most popular politician of the party. “For Stability!” promises the return of leader Aleksei Rosļikov, who fled to Belarus, the day after the elections and reproaches Ainārs Šlesers (LPV) for defending Russians only in words. Yulija Stepanenko’s “Sovereign Power” and “Young Latvians” alliance shows meetings with residents and cleaning up the aftermath of the storm. LPV politicians complain about the humiliation of pensioners and the restriction of Russian culture.
However, behind the mutual accusations, similar messages are repeated: the state has neglected its own people, the money they need is going to Ukraine, sanctions are harming Latvia, and there is less and less room for the Russian language. The only difference in rhetoric is the volume of promises and who presents themselves as the most reliable defender.
Four years ago, “Russian” parties promised voters education in their native language and broader rights for non-citizens. In 2022, “Harmony”, the Latvian Russian Union, and “Sovereign Power” failed to enter the Saeima, while “For Stability!” with 11 mandates failed to achieve the promised changes. Since Russia’s major invasion of Ukraine, none of these things have been conceivable in Latvian politics.
"Harmony Center": Ushakov’s works are useful, but he himself is out of sight
Previously, the largest Russian party, Saskaņa, failed to enter the Saeima after it collapsed in the aftermath of Russia’s major invasion of Ukraine. The party lost its most popular leader, Nil Ushakov (elected to the European Parliament), some politicians left it, and voters turned away who did not support its clear position against the conflict started by Russia. In sociological polls, it is currently below the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.
In this campaign, having renamed itself the “Harmony Center”, the party is trying to win back voters with an hour-long film “Traitors” in Russian, in which social media shows memories of Ushakov’s Riga projects and state-level initiatives. However, pride alternates with reproaches to former associates. Party representatives cite Roslikov’s “lust for power and betrayal” as the reasons for the beginning of the collapse of political power and the loss of power in Riga. Stepanenko and Ushakov are also among the traitors.
Candidate Igor Nikitin criticizes Ushakov’s decision to support Ukrainian strikes deep into Russian territory in the EP. Nikitin claims that Ushakov has acted incorrectly many times, including supporting LGBT. The deceiver, the leader of the Latgale list Aivars Sman, predicts a short life for Stepanenko’s party, because the politician herself is turning against those who have worked with her and helped her. "This party looks like a sect. There is one god, the purple fairy. And, God forbid, someone will say something bad," Sman explains.
Former party leader Ushakov does not advertise his "political home" in his social media posts.
The party has only recently started campaigning more actively. It speaks in Latvian and Russian about a more united Latvia. One of its leaders, Jānis Urbanovičs, who is its best-known politician, calls for acceptance that Russians live in Latvia, but loud accusations of discrimination are not at the forefront. The SC program includes lessons in minority languages, Latvian language courses for obtaining citizenship, and the gradual termination of non-citizen status. Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is condemned.
Meanwhile, the attitude towards aid to Ukraine on social media is cooler. After the storm that hit Latvia in August, candidates were outraged about sending generators to Ukraine. Sman called the storm a “wind from Sweden” and questioned Latvia’s readiness for other threats. He mocks Latvia as a rich country that helps Ukraine without asking for anything in return, and opposes the allocation of money for weapons and drones.
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In the film “Traitors,” party representatives claim that Latvia lost its independence upon joining the EU. They are not bothered by the fact that Ušakovs, whose achievements are being used in election campaigning, continues his career in Europe.
“For stability!”: about Latvia, not Ukraine
The party led by Roslikov won the vote of Russian-speaking voters in the previous elections and was the only party from this faction to enter the Saeima. In four years, it lost six of its 11 deputies. The faction disbanded, and the leader fled to Belarus to avoid facing trial in Latvia for inciting hatred. In the polls, it is currently below the 5% mark.
“Who owns Crimea?” – this is the question that begins the publication of the video of the interim leader Svetlana Chulkova. This question serves as a dividing line in Latvian politics, whether the respondent is pro-Russian. In Chulkova’s case, instead of an answer, there is a reproach to the “patriots”: there is a fire at home, but Ukraine is more important to them. “We are for Latvia, not Ukraine,” the post says. Chulkova is the “Stabilitātei” candidate for the post of prime minister, who tirelessly reminds voters – Aleksejs will return and will be a candidate for the post of President of the Republic!
After MP Natalya Marchenko-Jodko participated in the LTV debate, the party and she herself posted a fragment on social media in which the leader of the "Progressives" Latgale list, Leila Rasima, explained why it is necessary to support Ukraine. The fragment was used to shame the "Progressives", who, as the politician claims, first want to help the people of other countries, only then their own.
Roslikov promises not to give “a single kopeck” to other countries anymore. He links Latvia’s aid to economic schemes and conflicts that “absolutely do not concern us.” In the meantime, sanctions should be lifted, as they are making Latvia poor and alienating it from its “dear and beloved neighbors.”
Rosļikov’s TikTok about closing the border crossing with Belarus (Interior Minister Jānis Dombrava (NA) wanted to, but the government did not allow it, but it was closed for a few days) is accompanied by a demand to dismiss the minister: "The border must not be closed!" Rosļikov used this situation to threaten Latvia - and later to portray himself as a rescuer who, by using his contacts, managed to open a border crossing where mothers with small children are waiting. In turn, the closure of the "Mere" chain of stores, whose owners are subject to EU sanctions, is said to be sanctions against the Latvian people. The conflict in Russia and its connection with the sanctions remain out of the picture in these explanations.
The party’s program includes the renewal of cooperation with Russia and Belarus, a review of sanctions, and state neutrality. It also includes broader opportunities to use the Russian language, easier acquisition of citizenship, and education in the mother tongue.
The campaign is centered on the promise of Roslikov’s return. He compares himself to the leaders of the Russian and Belarusian opposition – the imprisoned Alexei Navalny and the languishing in prison Sergei Tsikhanouski: why are they being honored while he is being condemned?
The credibility of competitors is measured by their political strength in terms of their attitude towards the Russian language. Marchenko-Yodko warns that a “Russophobic” coalition with the NA could be formed with the votes of Russian speakers. In turn, Yuri Klepakovs, a satellite of the party’s former Tiktok star Gloria Grevcova, dressed in Emporio Armani sportswear and a T-shirt with a golden Kalashnikov, criticizes the restrictions on the import of Russian books and Shlesers, who “ran off to the toilet as always” during the Saeima vote about it. According to Roslikov’s party members, Shlesers supports cooperation with Russia only in words, because the votes show the opposite.
"Sovereign Power"/"Young Latvians": the purple fairy and less money for defense
The “Sovereign Power” (SV) and “Young Latvians” alliance led by Stepanenko are not in the Saeima. In the previous elections, SV collected 3.24% of the vote, but currently ranks in the top three in sociological polls (11.8% in July). Of the “Russian” parties, it has the best chances of entering parliament, obviously consolidating the voters who were confused in the previous elections and scattered among different lists.
Stepanenko’s former associates have nicknamed her the "Little Fairy" (apparently reflecting the party’s colors). Both she and her companion – a seasoned disinformer, Riga City Council member and on trial for embezzlement, Rūdolfs Brēmanis – are busy on social media. There, the union’s Riga City Council politicians listen to residents’ complaints and show how they work.
But behind the yard clean-up work is a proposal to change language and security policies. The program promises teaching in minority languages in private schools, optional Russian language learning in schools, and simpler naturalization. Candidate Andrejs Pagors (formerly the Latvian Russian Union) is pictured holding a poster with a quote from the 1919 education regulation about teaching in the students’ home language.
The alliance promises not to get involved in military conflicts, “including financing them,” to end a “submissive foreign policy,” to reallocate the defense budget to internal security and infrastructure, and to abolish conscription. The program does not explicitly promise to stop all aid to Ukraine, and in the debate, Stepanenko said that refugees would be helped.
The promised changes will require not only mandates, but also partners. SV/J is currently surrounded by the thickest red lines. Even his former colleague LPV Šlesers would not cooperate with him, even if this were the fate of the prime minister’s post (they parted ways when Stepanenko failed to condemn Russia’s conflict).
LPV: Šlesers promises everyone, Petkevicha looks after Russian-speaking people
The current opposition leader, the Latvian People’s Party (LPV), which has eight members in the current Saeima, is considered the only "Latvian party" capable of winning a share of the Russian vote. It is showing good results in sociological polls (the latest poll showed 8.5% support).
The party is addressing both Latvian conservative and Russian-speaking voters in its campaign. The program includes family, economy, security, NATO and the USA. It does not include such broad promises of language and non-citizen rights as “For Stability!”, SC and SV/J. LPV’s competitors on the Russian flank are diligently combating it, but apart from Šlesers himself, the Daugavpils citizen Olga Petkeviča, who previously ran for the EP from “Saskaņa”, is the most active in the fight for Russian votes.
Her many videos show retired Russian citizens and their difficulties in maintaining their residence rights. In her eyes, these are old people who have lived in Latvia their entire lives and are treated cruelly by the state. “They are fighting the Russian language again,” Petkevich writes in her publications. In yet another post, Petkevich highlights the Soviet past of the Minister of Culture, popular music and opera singer Nauris Puntulis – singing in an army ensemble.
The fake news about the alleged banning of Raimonds Pauls’ song allows the campaign to turn the issue of sanctions into outrage and an attack on a beloved culture. MP Edmunds Zivtiņš publishes Intars Busulis’s "Я тебя рисую" with the comment "I asked to remove it... :@". Commentators are angry and promise to continue listening to the songs in Russian. The recording does not prove the ban, but that is exactly what is discussed in the comments.
Meanwhile, Viktorija Pleškāne (elected to this Saeima from Stabilitātei! ) laments Soviet industry, mentioning the “Ditton” factory and the “Spārīte” bicycle: “Back then, there was enough money for everything.” Now, however, there are defense expenditures, fences, and cameras that are not even able to limit the flow of migrants.